Our changing climate - the latest findings
A characteristic of life today is the feeling of being overwhelmed by a regular onslaught of distressing news about wars and disasters. As a result, it would be easy to relegate the climate crisis and switch attention to normal everyday concerns. The danger is that we may be diverted away from worsening threats. Diversion may even suit policy-makers who find reasons to discard their own targets which, in retrospect, they dismiss as unachievable (1). This may lead to antipathy towards them and promote apathy about the imperative to address the big issue.
Three superb TV documentaries and related press reports provide compelling updates about the ever more critical impacts of our warming climate. News that nobody wants to hear - but not all of it is bad. These particular accounts merit more widespread attention. What is emerging now is a picture that previous forecasts have underestimated the changes which are likely during this century. This includes those of the International Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) whose pioneering research won a Nobel Prize in 2007.
Glaciers
Ireland's national broadcaster RTÉ has presented the trio of documentaries which draw on a wide sweep of current work by climate scientists, oceanographers, ecologists and others in different continents (2). In the opening episode, we are informed and shown graphic images to prove that Greenland's "vast" ice-sheet is melting five times faster than 20 years ago. That was when the IPCC was beginning its work.
A combination of atmospheric and ocean warming are producing more rain and, ominously now, dark ice. The latter is shocking evidence of absorption of carbon into the ice. Whereas normal white ice reflects heat back, black ice absorbs heat thereby exacerbating the problem. Together these factors are reinforcing and accelerating the speed and scale of melt-down. Climate scientists are discussing various scenarios including a 5 metre rise in ocean levels this century. It means stark consequences for coastal communities, potentially spreading 1/2 a mile inland.
In a separate report, details about coastal erosion growing more acute on Ireland's east coast are revealed (3) in the Irish Times. A recent assessment by Geological Survey Ireland between 2000 and 2021 shows that 19% of the shoreline had experienced moderate erosion in that period, while 7% had experienced high erosion. Portrane, Rush, Portmarnock and Donabate were identified as high erosion areas. To make matters worse, in the latter part of that period, 2013-2020, there was "a rise in the rate and scale of erosion along soft coasts of Dublin."
The television documentary portrays an additional impact of the melting of Greenland's glaciers, namely its dilution of salty seawater with freshwater. This entails serious consequences for our climatic lifeline - the Gulf Stream. The documentary examines the consequential disruptive impacts on our weather patterns, on sea-life and of "ecosystem collapse."
Another major issue relates to the impact of warming on the Artic and sub-Artic regions. More particularly, the permafrost with its ice-like peaty soil is, in the documentary's wording, "being aroused" by warming. This is causing long-time trapped toxic carbon, and also methane gases, to be released into the atmosphere. The programme emphasises that this process is happening now and taking place at a faster rate than official forecasts have been predicting. It concludes that "stopping emissions is the only fix."
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| Source: RTÉ Rising Tides |
Adaptation
What, therefore, can we do to address the problems and the potential for "upheaval?"
The documentary's second programme presents an example of a long-established good practice. A positive example of what can and is being done. The Dutch have been dealing with sea defences for 1,000 years providing locks, polders, pumps and dykes. Two-thirds of the Netherlands sits in a flood plain; one-third of the country lies below sea-level. They claim to have climate-proofed the country until the end of the century. Their underlying philosophy is not to "defeat" sea-level rise. Instead they work at providing nature-based solutions, as illustrated in the programme. They adopt a long-term vision, including examples of "the testing of infrastructure to destruction" over and over, year on year. The technology and know-how to respond to the challenge exist.
In addition to these working examples that support the Dutch strategy, the documentary demonstrates a parallel administrative change made to their national system. The country's Delta project for addressing climate change means that the issue is addressed by experts, "beyond politics." The presenter explained that the very Dutch noun polder has become a verb meaning "to agree something in the common good."
The programme continues with another and sharply contrasting example of successful adaptation - most significantly, not in a first world country. Bangladesh continues to experience cyclones, drought and heat waves, losing 10% of arable land, with the forecast loss of a similar percentage to come. It is described by the documentary as the world's seventh most vulnerable country to climate change; despite which, as the presenter reports, its people say that their nation as the world's best adapted country to climate change. Who would have thought that?
The report states that few people now die in cyclones because Bangladesh's climate plan includes a successful system of "social infrastructure." The country adopts a comprehensive communal approach where "people look after each other." Strategically-located Cyclone Centres provide emergency accomodation for livestock on one level with people living above.
What an inspiring approach from such an impoverished, climate-ravaged and densely-populated country; and what a contrast it provides with the Florida Quays islands south of Miami, also filmed in the documentary. Its residents are reported as debating the allocation to its public authorities of the enormous costs of raising a public road to provide them with access to their expensive properties.
Episode two also considers how to handle drought and food security caused by a warming climate. Examples of the devasting damage caused by wildfires in Catalonia are shown in graphic detail. Last summer both parts of Ireland witnessed wildfires. One lesson learned about adaptation to such events is what the scientists call "landscape management." The Catalonian strategy involves the mixing of agriculture and forestry with the use of livestock - herds of sheep and goats - to adapt the landscape and make it less vulnerable to unmanageable fires.
To exemplify impacts on food production, the documentary examined sub-Saharan Malawi where the growing season is reducing because of ever higher temperatures. Adaptation here involves working with nature to promote crop diversification and more intensive production during the shorter growing season. In such locations, low-cost support from western nations providing infrastructure such as irrigation systems is crucial and cost-effective in many ways.
Stop overheating Earth
The documentary's third episode begins with the fact that four-fifths of global warming is caused by fossil fuels. It poses (in my words) the $69 billion billion question - what are we actually doing to address the issue? It begins with the USA and examines its main response, the belated Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), seen as a big step forward, leadership from America. The Administration's aim is to provide tax incentives to encourage the "transitioning" of the American economy into going green. We are reminded that the IRA (4) is all about "carrots but no sticks" - no measures to penalise pollution. The documentary argues that the budget is a "tiny fraction of what is needed."
It singles out the one country that seems like a world-leader in making a decisive and early break from using fossil fuels, Sweden. Its emissions per person, for example are currently half those of Ireland. Its strategy is to preserve nature, to develop renewable energy especially solar and hydro, along with some nuclear power. The Swedes started the process of reducing dependence on oil and gas following the 1970's Middle Eastern oil crisis.
I recall the time when in 1973 I bought my first house as oil prices had surged. Since 1991 Sweden stepped up its approach and began taxing the use of carbon (a contrast with America's Act). Currently only 2% of emissions in Sweden come from oil and gas. Businesses such as the country's large steel industry are already running on zero omissions.
The programme speaks to experts about earlier predictions concerning coral reefs and their underestimating of the impact caused by ocean temperature rises. Florida's reefs are reported to have fallen to a negligible 1-2% coverage, described by a scientist there as "the collapse of an ecosystem." The documentary concludes that "the unthinkable has happened."
The emissions problems caused by aviation, huge relative to those of petrol-driven cars, are examined. An expert at Cambridge University quotes research which shows that the impacts of the sector's huge fuel burn, for instance on landing, could be reduced in a number of administrative and other ways by 40%. In discussion he conceded that it would take determined and far-reaching policy action by Governments to compel the airline industry to implement.
The documentary returns to Scandinavia to make a telling final point, to do with renewable energy sources. In the past Finland had a similarly distant attitude as does Ireland continue now about nuclear energy. That stance has now changed completely with half of Finland's electricity coming from nuclear power. Only one-tenth of its power currently comes from fossil fuels.
The 3-part RTÉ documentary is recommended to friends colleagues and all readers to digest at first hand. Watching global experts explaining the tools that exist to address the earth's climatic problems; observing them spell out the potential for upheaval and chaos if we fail; and what we as citizens and communities need to be aware of, positives and negatives, if only for the sake of the planet and the futures of our grandchildren.
Carbon Majors Database
Knowledge is power - to which end, the carbon geographer Richard Heede established this database in 2013 to help identify polluters. A newspaper article (5) highlights CMD's latest update (6):-
- 57 multinational companies are responsible for 80% of global greenhouse emissions since the 2016 Paris Agreement;
- most of the producers increased their output of fossil fuels in the seven years since compared to the seven years before Paris;
- of 122 of the world's biggest polluters, 65% of state entities and 55% of private-sector companies had scaled up production. Apart from oil and gas companies, it includes coal, cement and mining interests;
- the biggest investor-owned contributor to global emissions was ExxonMobil of the USA, linked to 3.6 gigatonnes of CO2 over seven years, or 1.4% of the global total;
- Shell, BP, Chevron and TotalEnergies followed close behind, each responsible for at least 1% of emissions; and
- the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company whose chairman was president of COP28 last December, is the 20th biggest emitter on the list.
Activists protest against fossil fuels at the UN COP climate summit in Dubai in December 2023
Global Action Plan Ireland (7) was established in 1995 to inspire people and communities to become environmental "change makers." It wilI play an important rolein the delivery of the new national climate strategy (8). Its leader Hans Zomer responded to the CMD update saying that "ultimately, it is people power that will change the behaviour of those who believe in business as usual."
In similar vein, Richard Heede applauds the Barbabos Prime Minister's Bridgetown Initiative. It includes a proposal that oil and gas companies contribute at least 10 cents in every dollar to a loss-and-damage fund. This is to ensure that fossil fuel producers have a moral obligation to pay for damages thay have caused and exacerbated. He adds that
"if business as usual continues we won't have a livable planet for our children and grandchildren. We must collect political corporate and public will to avoid the worst threat that climate change poses. We can do this."
© Michael McSorley 2024
References:-
1. BBC News 18 April 2024 "Scottish Government says 2030 Climate Target out of reach" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5n92qpdxzt
2. RTÉ "Rising Tides: "Ireland's Future in a Warmer World" https://www.rte.ie/player/series/rising-tides--ireland-s-future-in-a-warmer-world/10002411-00-0000?epguid=IP10002407-01-0001 Ep.1 broadcast 27 March, ep.2 on 3 April, ep.3 on 10 April 2024
3. Irish Times 20 April 2024 "Locals living on the edge seek solutions to coastal erosion" Barry J White
4. U.S Department of the Treasury https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act
5. Irish Times 6 April 2024 "Rogues Gallery of Polluters Emerges" Kevin O'Sullivan.
6. The Carbon Majors Database: launch report April 2024 https://carbonmajors.org/briefing/The-Carbon-Majors-Database-26913
7. https://globalactionplan.ie/
8. The Climate Action Plan 2024 https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/79659-climate-action-plan-2024/
