Electric Cars & Climate Change

 Introduction

Considering the tragic nature of so many global events that prevail today, it would be easy to let our attention be distracted from the worsening prospects of climate change.  A year after our last discussion (1), the question remains - are we doing enough?

On occasions, satirical images can nail the issue.

Incentives

A recent press report (2) reveals that Norway has just become the first nation (and an oil-producing one) where electric cars now outnumber petrol cars.  More precisely, the figures show that of the 2.8m private cars registered in the Nordic country (population of 5.5 million), 754,303 cars are all-electric, against 753,905 that run on petrol.

This result demonstrates the success of the Norwegian Government’s policy.  As an example of intent, it has set an ambitious target.  All new cars being sold have to be zero emission vehicles by 2025, which is 10 years ahead of the EU’s goal. To that end, and to help meet its climate commitments, Norway’s authorities have offered generous tax rebates on EVs, making them competitively priced compared with fuel, diesel and hybrid cars.

In contrast, the Government at Westminster post-Brexit has withdrawn earlier financial incentives.  My interest was piqued three or four years ago by a combination of a £4000 diesel trade-in scrappage scheme along with a £5,000 grant to help buy a new EV.  Within a year or two both carrots were withdrawn.  

Likewise the availability of charging stations at no cost to EV car owners was withdrawn just when I purchased an EV 18 months ago, as also were grants to help with the cost of installing EV chargers at home.  There are continuing complaints about the lack of provision of public EV charging across the U.K with Northern Ireland being the worst.  These shortcomings presumably reflect “the pressures on public spending in the world’s seventh largest economy” with its mandate to take back control.  

No hints of any return of these financial incentives are apparent in the U.K. even with a change of Government in July 2024.  A day before completing this article, I received a letter from the DVLA in  Abertawe (Swansea) saying that from 1 April 2025 car tax on previously-exempt EVs will be introduced in the U.K., both for new and existing cars.  This news hit like a shock not least as the change of policy has not yet been publicly announced by the new Government at Westminster, apart from a low-key website mention (3).  In addition, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s heralded budget has not yet been presented to Parliament. 

Peace and war

But is the withdrawal of incentives a false economy, when protection of public health, nature, climate adaptation and mitigation are placed on a lower level of priority?  This  rather than go on a quest to find savings elsewhere.  Could there be an alternative argument, such as to raid the U.K’s war-chest?  When, for example, the U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer warns (4) that “the Middle East is on the brink of all-out war,” is he not also conceding that the West’s role in arming that deadly conflict threatens rather than defends innocent citizens, peace and the environment?

Evidence of a changing climate

Every day there are graphic news stories illustrating the damage which ever more extreme weather is causing not just within the U.K. but on our European doorstep (5) 

- never mind the havoc and distress in faraway places, often in “the (impoverished) third world” whose emissions are much lower than ours.

Everybody knows that the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is an existential problem, injurious to public health and bad for nature.  In plain English, the toxicity in the air we breathe arises from:-

• the burning fossil fuels for energy;

• changes in land use and deforestation which reduce biodiversity and the numbers of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide; and

• agricultural production which releases greenhouse gases from energy use, from the number of livestock and the amount of fertiliser applied to land.

The example of transport

Transport is the largest emitting sector of greenhouse gas across the U.K, with the U.K. Government’s own figures showing that it produces 26% of such emissions (6).  The Department for Transport report estimates “that a petrol car journey from London to Glasgow emits approximately 4 times more carbon emissions per passenger than the equivalent journey by coach…. or 3 times more emissions per passenger than an electric car (taking into account emissions from electricity generation and distribution).”  The report adds that “the same journey by plane would emit almost twice as much carbon per passenger as a journey by the average petrol car.”

The U.K’s broad climate change target, even after July’s General Election, remains the achievement of net zero by 2050; and as regards cars, the former PM Sunak’s revised target of allowing sales of petrol and diesel cars until 2035 remains.  That’s a full decade less ambitious than Norway’s target.

Broadly speaking, the advantages of electric over petrol cars include the following:-

EVs emit zero exhaust emissions; they aren't fuelled by fossil fuels; they help to reduce air pollution; they reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and they help to improve air quality (especially in cities and built-up areas).

Moreover, EVs are more efficient than conventional combustion engined cars. That combined with the electricity cost means that charging an electric vehicle is cheaper than using petrol or diesel for travelling.  Using renewable energy sources can make the use of electric vehicles more eco-friendly.

Natural power sources

Figures released this month by Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy (7) indicate that almost half of our electricity is sourced from renewable sources, especially wind power.  Of the 7,244 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity consumed in Northern Ireland between July 2022 and June 2023, 3,319 GWh was generated from renewable sources; and of all the renewable electricity generated here, 82.3% was generated from wind.  

Other figures in the report indicate that over a 10-year period total electricity consumed has fallen by 11.2% from 8,126 GWh in June 2014 to 7,244 in June 2024; while total renewable generation of electricity has increased by 115.6% from 1,539 GWh to 3,319 over the same period. 

Car batteries

The manufacture of EVs has an environmental impact.  They contain parts whose components - lithium-ion batteries - have to be mined, creating a significant carbon footprint.  Fossil fuels are used in the manufacturing process to heat the raw minerals to very high temperatures. The mining of lithium, cobalt and nickel requires large amounts of water and can produce toxic waste.  Although emissions deriving from lithium mining are lower than those deriving from fossil fuels production, the extraction methods for lithium and cobalt can be energy-intensive, leading to air and water pollution, land degradation, and potential for groundwater contamination.

Even then, however, experts recommend electric vehicles because, in sharp contrast to petrol-powered vehicles of about the same size, they produce only 60g of CO2/km. The difference is stark, as over the car's lifetime this results in 50% less CO2 being released into the atmosphere.  Electric and hybrid vehicles can have significant emissions benefits over conventional vehicles. Unlike petrol cars, all-electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions.

Science

Overall, taking account of risks and benefits, the scientific consensus appears overwhelming: on any realistic like-for-like comparison, a battery EV will be cleaner than its petrol or diesel equivalent.  Burning fossil fuels to make and drive electric cars will still cause emissions, but at a lower level than inefficient fossil fuel engines. The message from the research suggests that environmental issues in providing battery power for EVs do not nullify or outweigh the benefits of driving an EV.

Conclusion

When I take my EV in or out, there is no attendant whiff of poisonous gas to attack my nostrils.  Likewise when cycling and stopped at traffic lights, being parked behind an EV rather than a petrol or diesel car entails no encounter with toxic fumes.

If next April’s imposition of road tax on EVs raises revenue for climate policy - more cycling lanes, better provision of electric chargers - rather than being devoted to military combat in the Middle East, EV supporters may accept the latest withdrawal of an exemption incentive.

Before responding to questions about the U.K’s response to climate change, take a close look at what our former partners in Europe such as Norway are doing.

 

POSTSCRIPT: A plea from car industry bosses in BMW, Ford and Land Rover to the U.K. Government reported in the Guardian (4 Oct 2024) appeals for subsidies to help the industry comply with its zero-emission vehicle mandate (8). 

© Michael McSorley 2024

References

1. 30 September 2023 https://michaelmcsorleynature.blogspot.com/2023/09/electric-cars-and-climate-change.html

2.  The Guardian 17 Sept 2024 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/17/norway-electric-cars-outnumber-petrol-for-first-time-in-historic-milestone

3. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low-emissions-vehicles

4.  The Independent 25 September 2024  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-middle-east-war-lebanon-un-b2618546.html

5.  BBC News 25 September 2024 Europe’s deadly floods are glimpse of future climate https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5zx2zx5xvo

6. U.K. Department for Transport 19 Oct 2023 Transport & Environment Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-and-environment-statistics-2023/transport-and-environment-statistics-2023 

7. Electricity Consumption and Renewable Generation in NI 5 September 2024 https://datavis.nisra.gov.uk/Economy/electricity-consumption-and-renewable-generation-report.html 

8. The Guardian Jasper Jolly 4 Oct 2024 Carmakers ramp up pressure on chancellor for EV sales subsidies  https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/04/carmakers-ramp-up-pressure-on-chancellor-for-ev-sales-subsidies

Climate change - important new evidence

Our changing climate  - the latest findings

A characteristic of life today is the feeling of being overwhelmed by a regular onslaught of distressing news about wars and disasters.  As a result, it would be easy to relegate the climate crisis and switch attention to normal everyday concerns.  The danger is that we may be diverted away from worsening threats.  Diversion may even suit policy-makers who find reasons to discard their own targets which, in retrospect, they dismiss as unachievable (1).  This may lead to antipathy towards them and promote apathy about the imperative to address the big issue.

Three superb TV documentaries and related press reports provide compelling updates about the ever more critical impacts of our warming climate.  News that nobody wants to hear - but not all of it is bad.  These particular accounts merit more widespread attention.  What is emerging now is a picture that previous forecasts have underestimated the changes which are likely during this century.  This includes those of the International Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) whose pioneering research won a Nobel Prize in 2007.

Glaciers

Ireland's national broadcaster RTÉ has presented the trio of documentaries which draw on a wide sweep of current work by climate scientists, oceanographers, ecologists and others in different continents (2).  In the opening episode, we are informed and shown graphic images to prove that Greenland's "vast" ice-sheet is melting five times faster than 20 years ago.  That was  when the IPCC was beginning its work.  

A combination of atmospheric and ocean warming are producing more rain and, ominously now, dark ice.  The latter is shocking evidence of absorption of carbon into the ice.  Whereas normal white ice reflects heat back, black ice absorbs heat thereby exacerbating the problem.  Together these factors are reinforcing and accelerating the speed and scale of melt-down.  Climate scientists are discussing various scenarios including a 5 metre rise in ocean levels this century.  It means stark consequences for coastal communities, potentially spreading 1/2 a mile inland.

In a separate report, details about coastal erosion growing more acute on Ireland's east coast are revealed (3) in the Irish Times.  A recent assessment by Geological Survey Ireland between 2000 and 2021 shows that 19% of the shoreline had experienced moderate erosion in that period, while 7% had experienced high erosion.  Portrane, Rush, Portmarnock and Donabate were identified as high erosion areas.  To make matters worse, in the latter part of that period, 2013-2020, there was "a rise in the rate and scale of erosion along soft coasts of Dublin."

The television documentary portrays an additional impact of the melting of Greenland's glaciers, namely its dilution of salty seawater with freshwater.  This entails serious consequences for our climatic lifeline - the Gulf Stream.  The documentary examines the consequential disruptive impacts on our weather patterns, on sea-life and of "ecosystem collapse." 

Another major issue relates to the impact of warming on the Artic and sub-Artic regions.  More particularly, the permafrost with its ice-like peaty soil is, in the documentary's wording, "being aroused" by warming.  This is causing long-time trapped toxic carbon, and also methane gases, to be released into the atmosphere.  The programme emphasises that this process is happening now and taking place at a faster rate than official forecasts have been predicting.  It concludes that "stopping emissions is the only fix."

Source: RTÉ Rising Tides

Adaptation

What, therefore, can we do to address the problems and the potential for "upheaval?"

The documentary's second programme presents an example of a long-established good practice.  A positive example of what can and is being done.  The Dutch have been dealing with sea defences for 1,000 years providing locks, polders, pumps and dykes.  Two-thirds of the Netherlands sits in a flood plain; one-third of the country lies below sea-level.  They claim to have climate-proofed the country until the end of the century.  Their underlying philosophy is not to "defeat" sea-level rise.  Instead they work at providing nature-based solutions, as illustrated in the programme.  They adopt a long-term vision, including examples of "the testing of infrastructure to destruction" over and over, year on year.  The technology and know-how to respond to the challenge exist.

In addition to these working examples that support the Dutch strategy, the documentary demonstrates a parallel administrative change made to their national system.  The country's Delta project for addressing climate change means that the issue is addressed by experts, "beyond politics."  The presenter explained that the very Dutch noun polder has become a verb meaning "to agree something in the common good."

The programme continues with another and sharply contrasting example of successful adaptation - most significantly, not in a first world country.  Bangladesh continues to experience cyclones, drought and heat waves, losing 10% of arable land, with the forecast loss of a similar percentage to come.  It is described by the documentary as the world's seventh most vulnerable country to climate change; despite which, as the presenter reports, its people say that their nation as the world's best adapted country to climate change.  Who would have thought that?

The report states that few people now die in cyclones because Bangladesh's climate plan includes a successful system of "social infrastructure."  The country adopts a comprehensive communal approach where "people look after each other."  Strategically-located Cyclone Centres provide emergency accomodation for livestock on one level with people living above.  

What an inspiring approach from such an impoverished, climate-ravaged and densely-populated country; and what a contrast it provides with the Florida Quays islands south of Miami, also filmed in the documentary.  Its residents are reported as debating the allocation to its public authorities of the enormous costs of raising a public road to provide them with access to their expensive properties. 

Episode two also considers how to handle drought and food security caused by a warming climate.  Examples of the devasting damage caused by wildfires in Catalonia are shown in graphic detail.  Last summer both parts of Ireland witnessed wildfires.  One lesson learned about adaptation to such events is what the scientists call "landscape management."  The Catalonian strategy involves the mixing of agriculture and forestry with the use of livestock - herds of sheep and goats - to adapt the landscape and make it less vulnerable to unmanageable fires.

To exemplify impacts on food production, the documentary examined sub-Saharan Malawi where the growing season is reducing because of ever higher temperatures.  Adaptation here involves working with nature to promote crop diversification and more intensive production during the shorter growing season.  In such locations, low-cost support from western nations providing infrastructure such as irrigation systems is crucial and cost-effective in many ways.

Stop overheating Earth

The documentary's third episode begins with the fact that four-fifths of global warming is caused by fossil fuels.  It poses (in my words) the $69 billion billion question - what are we actually doing to address the issue?  It begins with the USA and examines its main response, the belated Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), seen as a big step forward, leadership from America.  The Administration's aim is to provide tax incentives to encourage the "transitioning" of the American economy into going green.  We are reminded that the IRA (4) is all about "carrots but no sticks" - no measures to penalise pollution.  The documentary argues that the budget is a "tiny fraction of what is needed."

It singles out the one country that seems like a world-leader in making a decisive and early break from using fossil fuels, Sweden.  Its emissions per person, for example are currently half those of  Ireland.  Its strategy is to preserve nature, to develop renewable energy especially solar and hydro, along with some nuclear power.  The Swedes started the process of reducing dependence on oil and gas following the 1970's Middle Eastern oil crisis.  

I recall the time when in 1973 I bought my first house as oil prices had surged.  Since 1991 Sweden stepped up its approach and began taxing the use of carbon (a contrast with America's Act).  Currently only 2% of emissions in Sweden come from oil and gas.  Businesses such as the country's large steel industry are already running on zero omissions.

The programme speaks to experts about earlier predictions concerning coral reefs and their underestimating of the impact caused by ocean temperature rises.  Florida's reefs are reported to have fallen to a negligible 1-2% coverage, described by a scientist there as "the collapse of an ecosystem."  The documentary concludes that "the unthinkable has happened."

The emissions problems caused by aviation, huge relative to those of petrol-driven cars, are examined.  An expert at Cambridge University quotes research which shows that the impacts of the sector's huge fuel burn, for instance on landing, could be reduced in a number of administrative and other ways by 40%.  In discussion he conceded that it would take determined and far-reaching policy action by Governments to compel the airline industry to implement.

The documentary returns to Scandinavia to make a telling final point, to do with renewable energy sources. In the past Finland had a similarly distant attitude as does Ireland continue now about nuclear energy.  That stance has now changed completely with half of Finland's electricity coming from nuclear power.  Only one-tenth of its power currently comes from fossil fuels.

The 3-part RTÉ documentary is recommended to friends colleagues and all readers to digest at first hand.  Watching global experts explaining the tools that exist to address the earth's climatic problems; observing them spell out the potential for upheaval and chaos if we fail; and what we as citizens and communities need to be aware of, positives and negatives, if only for the sake of the planet and the futures of our grandchildren.

Carbon Majors Database

Knowledge is power - to which end, the carbon geographer Richard Heede established this database in 2013 to help identify polluters.  A newspaper article (5) highlights CMD's latest update (6):-

• 57 multinational companies are responsible for 80% of global greenhouse emissions since the 2016 Paris Agreement; 
• most of the producers increased their output of fossil fuels in the seven years since compared to the seven years before Paris; 
• of 122 of the world's biggest polluters, 65% of state entities and 55% of private-sector companies had scaled up production.  Apart from oil and gas companies, it includes coal, cement and mining interests; 
• the biggest investor-owned contributor to global emissions was ExxonMobil of the USA, linked to 3.6 gigatonnes of CO2 over seven years, or 1.4% of the global total; 
• Shell, BP, Chevron and TotalEnergies followed close behind, each responsible for at least 1% of emissions; and 
•  the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company whose chairman was president of COP28 last December, is the 20th biggest emitter on the list.

 

Activists protest against fossil fuels at the UN COP climate summit in Dubai in December 2023

Global Action Plan Ireland (7) was established in 1995 to inspire people and communities to become environmental "change makers."  It wilI play an important rolein the delivery of the new national climate strategy (8). Its leader Hans Zomer responded to the CMD update saying that "ultimately, it is people power that will change the behaviour of those who believe in business as usual." 

In similar vein, Richard Heede applauds the Barbabos Prime Minister's Bridgetown Initiative.  It includes a proposal that oil and gas companies contribute at least 10 cents in every dollar to a loss-and-damage fund.  This is to ensure that fossil fuel producers have a moral obligation to pay for damages thay have caused and exacerbated.  He adds that 

"if business as usual continues we won't have a livable planet for our children and                      grandchildren.  We must collect political corporate and public will to avoid the worst threat          that climate change poses.  We can do this."

 

© Michael McSorley 2024

References:-

1. BBC News 18 April 2024 "Scottish Government says 2030 Climate Target out of reach" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5n92qpdxzt

2. RTÉ "Rising Tides: "Ireland's Future in a Warmer World" https://www.rte.ie/player/series/rising-tides--ireland-s-future-in-a-warmer-world/10002411-00-0000?epguid=IP10002407-01-0001  Ep.1 broadcast 27 March, ep.2 on 3 April, ep.3 on 10 April 2024

3. Irish Times 20 April 2024 "Locals living on the edge seek solutions to coastal erosion" Barry J White

4. U.S Department of the Treasury https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act

5. Irish Times 6 April 2024 "Rogues Gallery of Polluters Emerges" Kevin O'Sullivan.

6. The Carbon Majors Database: launch report April 2024                                                    https://carbonmajors.org/briefing/The-Carbon-Majors-Database-26913

7. https://globalactionplan.ie/

8. The Climate Action Plan 2024 https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/79659-climate-action-plan-2024/